Following a weaker than expected AP print, jobless claims data is worse than expected too.

Initial claims rose to 238k last week from a revised 234k (and above the 235k expected). On an NSA basis, this is the highest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims continue to rise also, hitting 1.858 million Americans last week – the highest since Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The trend (4-week moving average) in initial claims is clear… and is starting to catch up to WARNs and Job Cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, according to (non-government-provided) Challenger-Grey data, the construction industry just suffered its largest layoffs since Lehman…

Source: Bloomberg

That can’t be good, right?

Have Powell and Biden suddenly decided its ok to admit reality in order to force a July rate-cut and save the election?