Futures Rebound From Thursday Rout Ahead Of Core PCE

One day after closing at the lowest level in more than a month, US equity futures have rebounded led by small-caps with tech names also in the green (NVDA +2.4%, META +2.0%, AMZN +1.2%, AAPL +97bp, GOOG/L +72bp). As of 8am ET, S&P futures are 0.8% higher while Nasdaq futs gain 1.1%, suggesting the underlying indexes will pare their weekly slump. Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark rose 0.5%. Treasuries and the dollar were little changed..  Bond yields are unchanged ahead of today’s core PCE print which is expected to show further easing in inflation. The USD is flat. Commodities are mixed: oil is lower while base metals/gold are higher. Today the key macro focus will be July’s core PCE which consensus sees dipping to 2.5% YoY vs. 2.6% prior.

In premarket trading, all the mega cap tech names are higher led by NVDA +2.4% (META +2.0%, AMZN +1.2%, AAPL +97bp, GOOG/L +72bp). 3M jumped 6% after the company raised its full-year profit forecast in a sign of progress as its new chief executive officer looks to reinvigorate the iconic manufacturer after a lengthy period of turmoil. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Baker Hughes climbs 1.9% after the oil-services provider posted a 2Q earnings beat.
• Biogen falls 6% after European drug regulators rejected an Alzheimer’s drug from the company and Eisai.
• Bristol Myers climbs 4% as the company raised its 2024 profit forecast after demand for its new medicines helped it beat Wall Street’s 2Q sales estimates.
• Booz Allen slips 5% after 1Q profit disappointed.
• Charter Communications gains 11% after posting 2Q profit that beat expectations.
• Coursera soars 26% after the online educational company reported 2Q revenue that topped the average analyst estimate.
• Deckers Outdoor rises 11% after the shoe company reported better-than-expected net sales for the first quarter and boosted its earnings per share forecast for the full year.
• Dexcom plunges 36% after the company cut its full-year sales forecast for the glucose monitoring devices relied upon by type 1 diabetics who need to closely track their blood sugar levels.
• Insulet rallies 4% after the insulin delivery system maker reported preliminary revenue for the 2Q that exceeded the average analyst estimate.
• Mohawk Industries rises 15% after the company beat Wall Street estimates for both 2Q earnings and 3Q guidance.
• Newell Brands rises 7% after boosting its operating cash flow forecast for the full year.

Dip-buyers are finally stepping back into stocks on Friday, a sign that the selloff which took the S&P 500 down almost 2% this week may be starting to ease. High-flying tech shares have been hammered the hardest in recent days amid a broader market retreat as concerns mounted over the scope for a US economic slowdown.

“Everything AI has been sold off,” said Kamil Dimmich, a partner at London-based North of South Capital. “Some of it is definitely justified, but for some stocks there may be opportunities for the longer term investor.”

Traders are now awaiting personal spending data which is expected to show inflation coming closer to the Fed’s target, which would give officials room to cut interest rates. Core PCE inflation is likely to be near 2% on a three-month annualized basis, Bloomberg Economics predict. That said, a soft landing for the US economy could slip away if noisy data delay a rate cut beyond September, according to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mohamed A. El-Erian.

“We certainly think there is a danger that the Fed is reacting slowly,” given the low US savings rate, said Nick Rees, a foreign-exchange analyst at Monex Europe.
Still, “we doubt today’s data will change many minds on the FOMC. We don’t think the Fed has seen enough yet to cut rates next week,” he said.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 rises 0.4%, with all major markets higher, as a frenetic week of earnings is wrapping up and investors are waiting for the Fed’s inflation update. Consumer products and mining stocks lead the gains, while chemicals and food and beverage stocks are among the few sectors in the red. Among indivdual stocks, Birkin bag-maker Hermes gains as the group’s sales figures exceeded estimates, while Nestle extends losses after downgrades at Deutsche Bank and Berenberg. Here are the most notable European movers:

• Hermès shares rise as much as 5% as the Birkin handbag maker’s earnings reassured investors with sales growth topping estimates.
• NatWest shares rises as much as 9.1% to an eight-year high after the British bank reported second-quarter figures including a higher-than-expected pretax operating profit.
• EssilorLuxottica shares jump as much as 8.1% in Paris after the eyewear producer confirmed that Meta Platforms is interested in buying a stake in the company.
• Drax shares jump as much as 16%, the most since 2020, after the UK electricity generator reported first-half profit described as strong by analysts, and guided that FY24 will be toward the top end.
• Bureau Veritas shares rise as much as 9.4% after the French goods-inspection company reported faster-than-expected sales growth in 2Q and raised its outlook for the year.
• Valeo shares gain as much as 7.2% after the car parts manufacturer’s first-half Ebit beat expectations, with Deutsche Bank seeing modest consensus upgrades for the year.
• Nestle shares extend declines for a fourth straight session after the consumer goods giant was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank and Berenberg.
• Capgemini shares slide as much as 9.4%, the biggest drop since July 2023, as it cut its growth guidance for the full year.
• Vallourec shares drop as much as 11%, the most since March 2023, after the tubular steel company’s full-year Ebitda guidance came in below estimates.
• Holcim shares fall as much as 3.8%, the most in a month, after the Swiss cement maker reported its latest earnings.
• Thyssenkrupp shares fall as much as 9.4% to its lowest in over four years after the German steel producer issued a profit warning on Thursday night.
• Signify shares decline as much as 9.3%, to a four-year low, after the lighting manufacturing company reported 2Q Ebita that missed the average analyst estimate.

Earlier in the session Asian stocks fell, set to cap a second-straight weekly decline, with heavyweight TSMC sliding as investors continued to rotate out of overheated AI trades while awaiting for key US inflation data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.5%, to its lowest level in more than five weeks, with a gauge of tech stocks the biggest drag. Taiwan dropped the most in the region as trading resumed after disruptions caused by a typhoon. The slide offset gains in Australia, South Korea and India. Chinese shares were mixed.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed; the Japanese yen falls 0.2% against the dollar, pushing USD/JPY up to ~154.20. The Swiss franc also falls 0.2%.

In rates, treasuries are steady ahead of US core PCE data for June, with US 10-year yields flat at 4.24%. Yields are mixed on the week with curve steeper as short end benefited from increased conviction on Fed rate cuts this year. Curve spreads slightly wider on the day after 2s10s, 5s30s reached least-inverted or steepest levels since May 2023 on Thursday but failed to sustain the moves and ended at flatter (or more deeply inverted) levels. Bunds underperform gilts and Treasuries across the curve. 

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.4% to near $78 a barrel. Spot gold rises $8 to around $2,372/oz. Most base metals trade in the green. Bitcoin climbs above USD 67k, with Ethereum also finding its footing and now holding around USD 3.2k.

Looking at today’s caendar, US economic data calendar includes June personal income and spending with PCE price indexes (8:30am), July final University of Michigan sentiment index (10am) and July Kansas City Fed services activity (11am) Fed officials have no scheduled appearances until after the next FOMC meeting ends July 31.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 5,478.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 511.45
• MXAP down 0.4% to 178.38
• MXAPJ down 0.1% to 557.98
• Nikkei down 0.5% to 37,667.41
• Topix down 0.4% to 2,699.54
• Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,021.31
• Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 2,890.90
• Sensex up 1.4% to 81,132.86
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 7,921.27
• Kospi up 0.8% to 2,731.90
• German 10Y yield +3.7 bps at 2.45%
• Euro little changed at $1.0844
• Brent Futures little changed at $82.31/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,371.48
• US Dollar Index little changed at 104.43

Top Overnight News

• Former US President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama announce their support for Kamala Harris’ candidacy for the US presidency of the Democratic Party
• Morgan Stanley commented to institutional clients on Thursday that computer-driven macro hedge fund strategies on Wednesday sold USD 20bln in equities and are set to shed at least USD 25bln over the next week after the stock rout, in one of the largest risk-unwinding events in a decade, according to Reuters
• While the United States has had a head start on A.I. development, China is catching up. In recent weeks, several Chinese companies have unveiled A.I. technologies that rival the leading American systems. And these technologies are already in the hands of consumers, businesses and independent software developers across the globe. NYT
• Japan’s Tokyo CPI for Jul cools to +1.5% (ex-food/energy), down 30bp from +1.8% in June and below the Street’s +1.6% forecast. BBG  
• Apple dropped out of the top five smartphone sellers in China for the first time in four years in the second quarter, with the iPhone losing ground to models from domestic handset makers including Huawei. FT
• China is considering a tenfold fee increase to curtail high-frequency trading, its latest attempt to rein in some quant strategies deemed by regulators a threat to market fairness. BBG
• Mercedes dialed back expectations for the year amid an environment characterized by softer demand and intense competition (the stock isn’t doing much as the outlook cut was modest and sentiment is already cautious toward the industry). BBG
• Trains to and from Paris, including the Eurostar, were disrupted by what authorities called a coordinated sabotage effort ahead of the Olympic Games’ inaugural ceremony. Fires were set off at three critical rail-line nodes. Services won’t return to normal until Monday and at least 800,000 passengers will be affected. BBG
• JPMorgan Chase has begun rolling out a generative artificial intelligence product, telling employees that its own version of OpenAI’s ChatGPT can do the work of a research analyst. The US bank has given employees of its asset and wealth management division access to a large language model the bank is calling LLM Suite. FT
• Amazon is developing its own processors to limit its reliance on costly Nvidia chips – the so-called Nvidia tax – that power some of the artificial intelligence cloud business at its Amazon Web Services, the main growth driver. RTRS
• Elliott published a statement after the close and reiterated its call for a new leadership team at Southwest (“this failed leadership team’s announced initiatives – obvious attempts at self-preservation – are simply not credible. Too little, too late is not a strategy. It’s time for new leadership”). RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as risk sentiment in Asia improved with markets finding some composure following the recent sell-off and with some encouragement from stronger-than-expected US GDP data. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the commodity, materials, real estate and energy-related sectors. Nikkei 225 was choppy and briefly rose above 38,000 following mostly softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied with the former rangebound as it strived to stay above the 17,000 level, while the mainlained remained lacklustre amid lingering slowdown concerns despite another increased PBoC liquidity effort.

Top Asian News

• China SASAC said central state-owned enterprises in China are expected to arrange total investment of about CNY 3tln in large-scale equipment upgrades over the next five years.
• Hong Kong reappointed HKMA Chief Executive Eddie Yue for a term of 5 years effective October 1st.
• Typhoon Gaemi will start impacting Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan and Hebei provinces over the next three days and will bring powerful storms to affected areas, according to CCTV.
• Monetary Authority of Singapore maintained the width, centre and slope of the SGD NEER policy band, as expected. MAS said current monetary policy settings remain appropriate and the prevailing rate of appreciation of the policy band will keep a restraining effect on imported inflation. Furthermore, it noted that growth momentum in the Singapore economy should improve in the second half of 2024 and that GDP growth is likely to come in closer to its potential rate of 2–3% for the full year.
• China reportedly weighs tenfold fee increase on high-frequency traders, according to Bloomberg sources; the final plan is still under revision. China Securities Regulatory Commission and Chinese stock exchanges have consulted some market participants on draft plans to raise a CNY 0.1 (1.4%) fee on buy and sell orders to at least CNY 1 if the transactions meet the threshold of high-frequency trading, sources stated. Accounts with a monthly turnover rate below four times their total holdings may be exempt, to avoid negatively impacting mutual funds using automated trades.
• Japan’s Ministry of Finance reportedly wants the BoJ to cut bond purchases gradually; wants the BoJ to consider bank capacity in bond plan, according to Bloomberg sources

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.6%) opened the session mixed and on either side of the unchanged mark, though sentiment picked up as the session progressed and generally reside near session highs. European sectors hold a positive bias; Consumer Products takes the top spot, propped by post-earning strength in Luxury name Hermes (+3.9%). Basic Resources and Energy are benefiting from strength in underlying metal prices. Chemicals is found near the foot of the pile, after BASF (-2.7%) and Wacker Chemie (-2.1%) both reported weak earnings. US equity futures (ES +0.6%, NQ +0.9%, RTY +1.9%) are entirely in the green, with the NQ and ES regaining their composure after being the subject of heavy selling pressure amid the recent rotation play, which has seen the RTY outperform in the past week. Focus today is on the US PCE at 08:30 EDT / 13:30 BST.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves said there is still more work to do on the 'Pillar 1′ tax agreement and is optimistic for agreement by autumn, while she wants the tax burden on working people to be lower, but won’t make unfunded commitments and will make a statement on Monday about the state of public finances and public spending pressures. Furthermore, Reeves said she is going to fix the fiscal mess that the Tories left and wants fairer, sustainable tax on the wealthy but needs to strike the right balance, as well as noted that Labour wants to be pro-growth and pro-wealth creation, according to Reuters.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is expected to reveal a GBP 20bln hole in government spending for essential public services on Monday, paving the way for potential tax rises in the autumn budget, according to The Guardian

FX

• USD is mixed vs. peers with price action a reversal of recent sessions with the dollar faring worse against risk-sensitive currencies and better against havens. DXY remains within Thursday’s 104.08-45 range ahead of today’s key US PCE data.
• EUR/USD is currently respecting Thursday’s 1.0826-69 parameters with yesterday’s base holding above a slew of DMAs; 200 at 1.0818, 50 at 1.0810, 100 at 1.0796. Fresh EZ fundamentals are lacking in today’s session with the ECB’s SCE passing seeing the 12-month and 3-year projections held at prior levels.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD after a session of losses yesterday which dragged the pair from a 1.2913 peak to a 1.2849 low.
• USD/JPY is back on a 154 handle after Thursday’s wild ride. Overnight saw an uptick in Tokyo CPI (ex-fresh food) in the run-up to next week’s BoJ policy announcement, which has seen bets of potential action increase throughout the week. A 15bps hike is currently priced at 46%.
• Both antipodeans are attempting to atone for recent heavy losses alongside a pick-up in risk sentiment

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat and trade has been rangebound in the run-up to US PCE at 08:30 EDT / 13:30 BST. Focus is on the core metric which is seen in a 0.1% to 0.2% range, a 0.2% figure may not knock the narrative for September easing, but could impact pricing for the remainder of the year.
• Bunds are lower to the tune of 30 ticks, but remains above Thursday’s 131.95 base. There was no reaction to the ECB SCE, which saw 1 and 3-year inflation outlooks maintained.
• Gilt price action has largely mimicked that of Bunds; currently trading to the bottom end of today’s 97.46-97.77 band. Next UK-specific catalyst will be on Monday, where Chancellor Reeves will provide a fiscal update that is expected to show a GBP 20bln funding gap.

Commodities

• Crude is slightly softer and off overnight highs, in what has been a quiet session thus far. Brent sits in an USD 82.05-71/bbl parameter.
• Mixed trade across precious metals despite a steady USD, with modest upside seen in spot gold and palladium – albeit with gains capped ahead of US PCE- whilst spot silver underperforms. XAU sits in a current USD 2,355.87-,2379.48/oz intraday parameter.
• Base metals are mostly firmer and to varying degrees, with risk sentiment having picked up overnight.
• Hungarian PM aide Gulyas says the oil deliveries issue, with Ukraine, must be resolved by September and there is a risk of fuel shortages unless there is a resolution. No immediate risk to fuel supply.
• Citi says by Q4, it sees copper back at USD 9,500/t and rallying further to USD 11k/t by early 2025

Geopolitics – Middle East

• Israel is seeking changes to a plan for a Gaza truce and the release of hostages by Hamas which complicates a final deal, according to sources cited by Reuters. It was also reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu told hostage families that Israel will submit an updated ceasefire proposal to Hamas within two days, according to Axios.
• US President Biden expressed the need to close the remaining gaps and finalise the Gaza deal as soon as possible during the meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu, while he also raised the need to remove obstacles to the flow of aid to Gaza.
• US VP Harris said she had a frank and constructive meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu and she has unwavering commitment to Israel and its security, while she stands with families of hostages held in Gaza. Harris also expressed serious concerns about the scale of deaths in Gaza and noted that a two-state solution is the only viable path.
• White House said gaps remain in ceasefire talks but believes they can be closed and it believes they are closer to the ceasefire and hostage deal than ever before.
• It was expected that there would be a development in the hostage negotiations after the meeting between US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu, while Netanyahu’s office informed the members of the mini-ministerial council that there is progress in the swap deal negotiation, according to Al Jazeera.
• Palestinian government said a Hamas leader in the West Bank died in Israeli captivity, according to Reuters.
• Houthi-affiliated media reports five US-British raids on Hodeidah airport, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Syrian Observatory said US warplanes targeted with heavy machine guns the areas of influence of pro-Iranian militias in the countryside of Deir Ezzor, eastern Syria, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Security source noted missile shelling targeting the vicinity of Ain al-Asad base which hosts international coalition forces, according to Asharq News.

Geopolitics – Other

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said in talks with his Indian counterpart that China-India relations have an important impact beyond the bilateral scope and it is in the interests of both sides to get China-India relations back on track. Wang also said they hope the two sides will work in the same direction and actively explore the correct way for the two neighbouring countries to get along.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: June Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
  • June PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0%
  • June Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%
  • June PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.6%
  • June Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%
  • June Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • June Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00: July U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
  • July U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
  • July U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 66.4, prior 66.0
  • July U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 67.5, prior 67.2
  • July U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 64.4, prior 64.1
  • 11:00: July Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior 2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The family are going camping for the weekend today without me. This is a mums and kids trip with Dads not invited which is a blessing as my view on camping is that I haven’t worked hard for nearly three decades to voluntarily sleep on grass and mud with a bad back. I would normally pack this weekend of freedom with golf but annoyingly I have yet another trapped nerve (neck and elbow) and have lost sensation in my two outer fingers. Yesterday I had about my 30th career MRI scan. All advise on anyone who has come out the other side for such a complaint greatfully received.

Scanning the market rather than my injuries, it’s been a rather wild ride over the past 24 hours with a risk-off tone ultimately dominating as the S&P 500 (-0.51%) fell for the sixth time in seven sessions even if futures are making a decent amount of this back in Asia overnight. Equities had initially looked on course for a decent rebound yesterday but slumped later on as the rotation trade away from tech mega caps again took hold. The Mag-7 (-1.06% yesterday) is now down nearly -13% since its record high on July 10, with the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.26%) outperforming it by a remarkable 24pp over this period. Meanwhile, bonds rallied with the 10yr Treasury yield down -4.3bps to 4.24% as rate cut hopes continued to inch higher despite a solid set of US data.

That included a decent Q2 US GDP report, which showed growth was running at an annualised +2.8% in Q2 (vs. +2.0% expected), up from the +1.4% pace in Q1. This pushed back on a building narrative of recent days, which basically implied that the US economy was about to turn sharply lower, and that the Fed needed to cut rates swiftly to prevent that. Indeed, the details from the report were also pretty good, as final sales to private domestic purchasers (which Chair Powell has cited as a good signal of underlying demand) were up by +2.6% for a second consecutive quarter. So it wasn’t as though a good headline number was masking weakness
underneath.

There were also other less dovish data elements. For instance, the GDP release showed that core PCE inflation was running at +2.9% in Q2 (vs. +2.7% expected). So unless there are revisions to April/May, this would imply a hotter than previously expected June number when released today. This will be an important print. Meanwhile, weekly initial jobless claims were down to 235k in the week ending July 20 (vs. 238k expected), and continuing claims were down to 1.851m (vs. 1.868m expected) over the week ending July 13.

Still, viewed across the day as a whole, there was no reversal of Fed easing hopes with some probability of either a move next week or a cut of more than 25bps by the September FOMC with markets pricing in 28.6bps of cuts by then as of yesterday’s close (+0.8bps on the day before). For what it’s worth, the first rate cuts in 2001 and 2007 were both 50bps, although both of those came in the context of imminent recessions. By contrast, when the last cutting cycle began in 2019, the Fed delivered three 25bp moves, until Covid hit in 2020 when they slashed rates more aggressively.

The fact that markets ended the day pricing more cuts perhaps reflects the tightening in financial conditions we’ve seen over the last week, with Bloomberg’s index of US financial conditions falling to its least accommodative level of 2024 so far.

That said the GDP print did cause some intra-day repricing as markets started more dovishly with 31bps of YE 2024 Fed cuts priced in pre-data. The 2yr yield also traded as low as 4.34% early on, its lowest level since early February, but was ultimately unchanged on the day at 4.43% by the close. The long end of the curve did rally on the day, as the 10yr yield fell -4.3bps to 4.24%, while the 30yr yield was down -5.9bps. So there was a decent curve flattening that took the 2s10s back to -19.2bps, which marked a reversal from earlier in the session when it had got as steep as -11.3bps.

For equities, it was a similarly volatile day. They started the day on the backfoot, but the S&P 500 then rallied to as much as +1.2% intra-day before giving up the gains to close -0.51% down. With the rotation theme dominating as mentioned at the top, the headline S&P decline came even as 58% of its constituents were higher on the day, with the equal-weighted version up +0.11%. There was also sizeable sectoral divergence, with energy (+1.47%) and industrials (+0.76%) stocks posting decent gains but information technology (-1.14%) and communications services (-1.86%) slumping. The heightened volatility was little helped by the ongoing earnings season, with notable movers including a -18.36% decline for Ford which had its worst session since the GFC.

Over in Europe, the major indices were all lower, which in large part reflected a catchup to the previous day’s selloff. Indeed, the STOXX 600 was down -0.72% on
the day, but that was actually a decent recovery from earlier in the session, when it had been down -1.66%. Europe did close just before the US market peaked for  he day. The earlier mood wasn’t helped by some disappointing data releases that added to concerns over the health of the European growth cycle. In particular, the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany fell to 87.0 (vs. 89.0 expected), which was its third consecutive monthly decline, and the lowest reading since February. And in France, the INSEE business confidence (94 vs 99 expected) fell to its lowest level since February 2021, just before the Covid vaccine rollout.

In turn, this led investors to dial up their expectations for ECB rate cuts. By yesterday’s close, 53bps of cuts were priced by year end (+3.1bps on the day) and 111bps by the June 2025 meeting (+9.0bps). In turn, that helped sovereign bond yields to fall across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.6bps), OATs (-
2.9bps) and BTPs (-1.7bps) all moving lower.

Overnight, Asian equity markets are mostly recovering after their worst session since mid-April while shrugging off overnight weakness on Wall Street. Across the region, the KOSPI (+0.77%) is leading gains with the Nikkei (+0.50%) also edging higher. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.05%) and the CSI (+0.06%) are swinging between gains and losses while the Shanghai Composite (-0.19%) is slightly lower. S&P 500 (+0.39%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0. 45%) futures are rebounding again.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s Tokyo CPI core (excluding food) increased from +2.1% y/y to +2.2% y/y in July, in-line with market expectations and marking the third consecutive month of re-acceleration following a dip to +1.6% y/y in April. The data comes as speculation mounts that the BoJ will hike rates next week. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen (+0.08%) has stabilised near a 12-week high of 153.79 against the dollar.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PCE inflation reading for June, along with personal income and personal spending. There’s also the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for July. From central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for June.