Renewed Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Spark Modest Rebound In Housing Starts/Permits In June
Housing Start s and Building Permits rose more than expected in June (+3.0% MoM and +3.4% MoM respectively) and May’s disappointments were revised modestly higher too (-4.6% MoM and -2.8% MoM respectively)…
Source: Bloomberg
That lifted the SAAR totals for both starts and permits just off their COVID lockdown lows..
Source: Bloomberg
The modest rebound in permits – forward-looking – appears to have been triggered by a renaissance in Fed rate-cut hopes…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood things are very uneven with multi-family unit permits and starts soared while single-family home permits and starts both declined…
Source: Bloomberg
Not a great picture for the housing market with four straight months of declines in single-family home construction plans (inventories high) and renter nation demand growing (inflation?).
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June single family starts -2.2% to 980K SAAR, lowest since Oct 2023
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June multi-family starts +22% to 360K SAAR, highest since Feb 2024
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June single-family permits -2.3% to 934K SAAR, lowest since early 2023
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June multi-family permits +19.2% to 460K, highest since Feb 2024
And as 'Starts’ languish near COVID lockdown lows, 'completions’ are at their highest since Jan 2007…
„If we build them, they will buy?” is not working…
Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/17/2024 – 08:42